"use strict"; function NESCausalAnalysisReport() { const { useState } = React; // For technical details accordions const [openSection, setOpenSection] = useState(null); const toggleSection = section => { setOpenSection(openSection === section ? null : section); }; // Chart options for Selection Bias const selectionBiasChartOptions = { chart: { type: 'bar', height: 350 }, title: { text: 'Selection Bias: Standardized Mean Differences (SMDs)', align: 'left', style: { fontSize: '16px', fontWeight: 'bold' } }, subtitle: { text: 'Measures how different NES schools were from non-NES schools before implementation', align: 'left' }, xAxis: { categories: ['Economic Disadvantage', 'Gifted & Talented', 'Prior Achievement', 'White Students', 'School Size', 'Special Education'], title: { text: null } }, yAxis: { min: -1, max: 1, title: { text: 'Standardized Mean Difference', align: 'middle' }, labels: { overflow: 'justify' }, plotLines: [{ value: 0, color: '#BBBBBB', width: 1, zIndex: 5 }] }, tooltip: { formatter: function () { let values = { 'Economic Disadvantage': { nes: '96.8%', nonNes: '79.5%' }, 'Gifted & Talented': { nes: '3.3%', nonNes: '12.0%' }, 'Prior Achievement': { nes: '30.5%', nonNes: '43.0%' }, 'White Students': { nes: '1.7%', nonNes: '9.7%' }, 'School Size': { nes: '476', nonNes: '678' }, 'Special Education': { nes: '12.0%', nonNes: '11.1%' } }; return `${this.x}
SMD: ${this.y.toFixed(2)}
NES: ${values[this.x].nes}
Non-NES: ${values[this.x].nonNes}`; } }, plotOptions: { bar: { dataLabels: { enabled: true, format: '{y:.2f}' } } }, legend: { enabled: false }, credits: { enabled: false }, series: [{ name: 'SMD', data: [0.920, -0.822, -0.801, -0.793, -0.401, 0.159], color: { linearGradient: { x1: 0, x2: 0, y1: 0, y2: 1 }, stops: [[0, '#ef4444'], // red for extreme positive bias [0.5, '#ffffff'], // white for no bias [1, '#3b82f6'] // blue for extreme negative bias ] }, colorByPoint: true }] }; // Chart options for Raw Performance Comparison const rawPerformanceChartOptions = { chart: { type: 'column', height: 350 }, title: { text: 'Raw Performance Comparison (Unadjusted)', align: 'left', style: { fontSize: '16px', fontWeight: 'bold' } }, subtitle: { text: 'Before accounting for selection bias', align: 'left' }, xAxis: { categories: ['Mathematics', 'Reading/ELA'], crosshair: true }, yAxis: { min: 0, max: 100, title: { text: 'Percent Meeting Standard (2024)' }, labels: { format: '{value}%' } }, tooltip: { headerFormat: '{point.key}', pointFormat: '' + '', footerFormat: '

{series.name}:

{point.y:.1f}%

', shared: true, useHTML: true }, plotOptions: { column: { pointPadding: 0.2, borderWidth: 0 } }, series: [{ name: 'NES Schools', color: '#60a5fa', data: [39.1, 41.9] }, { name: 'Non-NES Schools', color: '#d1d5db', data: [43.9, 48.2] }] }; // Chart options for Causal Impact const causalImpactChartOptions = { chart: { type: 'line', height: 400 }, title: { text: 'Causal Impact: School Performance Trajectories', align: 'left', style: { fontSize: '16px', fontWeight: 'bold' } }, subtitle: { text: 'After adjusting for selection bias', align: 'left' }, xAxis: { categories: ['Previous Year', '2024'], title: { text: null } }, yAxis: { min: 25, max: 50, title: { text: 'Percent Meeting Standard' }, labels: { format: '{value}%' } }, tooltip: { formatter: function () { return `${this.series.name}
${this.x}: ${this.y.toFixed(1)}%`; } }, plotOptions: { line: { marker: { symbol: 'circle', radius: 4 } } }, legend: { layout: 'horizontal', align: 'center', verticalAlign: 'bottom' }, series: [{ name: 'NES Math', color: '#3b82f6', data: [30.5, 39.1], lineWidth: 3 }, { name: 'Non-NES Math', color: '#9ca3af', data: [43.0, 43.9], dashStyle: 'Dash', lineWidth: 3 }, { name: 'NES Reading/ELA', color: '#60a5fa', data: [33.0, 41.9], lineWidth: 3 }, { name: 'Non-NES Reading/ELA', color: '#d1d5db', data: [47.3, 48.2], dashStyle: 'Dash', lineWidth: 3 }] }; // Chart options for Common Support const commonSupportChartOptions = { chart: { type: 'pie', height: 300 }, title: { text: 'School Distribution by Common Support', align: 'left', style: { fontSize: '16px', fontWeight: 'bold' } }, subtitle: { text: 'Where causal estimates can be reliably applied', align: 'left' }, plotOptions: { pie: { allowPointSelect: true, cursor: 'pointer', dataLabels: { enabled: true, format: '{point.name}: {point.percentage:.1f}%', distance: 20 }, showInLegend: true } }, tooltip: { pointFormat: '{point.name}: {point.y} schools ({point.percentage:.1f}%)' }, series: [{ name: 'Schools', colorByPoint: true, data: [{ name: 'Within Common Support', color: '#60a5fa', y: 154, sliced: true, selected: true }, { name: 'Outside Common Support', color: '#d1d5db', y: 63 }] }] }; return /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "max-w-7xl mx-auto px-4 sm:px-6 lg:px-8 py-8 bg-white" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "mb-12" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h1", { className: "text-3xl font-bold text-gray-900 mb-4" }, "HISD New Education System (NES) Impact Analysis"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "text-lg text-gray-700 mb-8" }, "A causal analysis of Houston ISD's New Education System initiative implemented in selected schools, accounting for selection bias in treatment assignment."), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-3 gap-6 mb-8" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "bg-slate-50 p-6 rounded-lg shadow" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h2", { className: "text-lg font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-3" }, "District-Wide Performance"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "flex flex-col gap-4" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", null, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "flex justify-between mb-1" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "text-sm font-medium" }, "Mathematics"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "text-xl font-bold text-gray-900" }, "42.5%")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "w-full bg-gray-200 rounded-full h-2" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "bg-blue-400 h-2 rounded-full", style: { width: '42.5%' } }))), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", null, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "flex justify-between mb-1" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "text-sm font-medium" }, "Reading/ELA"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "text-xl font-bold text-gray-900" }, "46.4%")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "w-full bg-gray-200 rounded-full h-2" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "bg-blue-400 h-2 rounded-full", style: { width: '46.4%' } })))), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "text-xs text-gray-500 mt-4" }, "Percentage of students meeting standard across all schools in 2024")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "bg-slate-50 p-6 rounded-lg shadow" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h2", { className: "text-lg font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-3" }, "Causal Impact of NES"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "flex flex-col gap-4" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", null, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "flex justify-between mb-1" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "text-sm font-medium" }, "Mathematics"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "text-xl font-bold text-blue-600" }, "+6.0pp")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "text-xs text-gray-500" }, "95% CI: [3.4, 8.6]")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", null, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "flex justify-between mb-1" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "text-sm font-medium" }, "Reading/ELA"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "text-xl font-bold text-blue-600" }, "+6.8pp")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "text-xs text-gray-500" }, "95% CI: [5.6, 8.1]"))), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "text-xs text-gray-500 mt-4" }, "Percentage point increase attributable to NES after adjusting for selection bias")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "bg-slate-50 p-6 rounded-lg shadow" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h2", { className: "text-lg font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-3" }, "Projected District-Wide Impact"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "mb-3" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "text-xl font-bold text-gray-900" }, "6-7pp improvement"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "text-sm text-gray-600 mt-1" }, "for 71% of schools")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "flex items-center gap-2 mb-3" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "w-3 h-3 rounded-full bg-blue-400" }), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "text-sm" }, "154 schools within common support")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "flex items-center gap-2" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "w-3 h-3 rounded-full bg-gray-300" }), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "text-sm" }, "63 schools outside common support")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "text-xs text-gray-500 mt-4" }, "Reliable projections limited to schools similar to current NES schools")))), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "mb-16" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h2", { className: "text-2xl font-bold text-gray-900 mb-4" }, "The Challenge: Comparing Apples to Oranges"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "text-gray-700 mb-6" }, "Initial comparisons show NES schools performing worse than non-NES schools. However, these raw comparisons are misleading because NES was systematically implemented in schools with concentrated disadvantage, lower baseline performance, and different student populations."), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "mb-8" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement(HighchartsReact, { highcharts: Highcharts, options: rawPerformanceChartOptions }), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "text-sm text-gray-600 mt-2" }, "This chart shows raw performance differences before accounting for selection bias. NES schools appear to underperform, but this comparison ignores fundamental differences between school types.")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 bg-slate-50 p-6 rounded-lg mb-6" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", null, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h3", { className: "text-lg font-semibold mb-3" }, "Key School Differences:"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("ul", { className: "space-y-2" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", { className: "flex justify-between" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", null, "Economically Disadvantaged:"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "font-medium" }, "NES: 96.8% | Non-NES: 79.5%")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", { className: "flex justify-between" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", null, "White Students:"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "font-medium" }, "NES: 1.7% | Non-NES: 9.7%")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", { className: "flex justify-between" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", null, "Gifted & Talented:"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "font-medium" }, "NES: 3.3% | Non-NES: 12.0%")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", { className: "flex justify-between" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", null, "Previous Year Math:"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "font-medium" }, "NES: 30.5% | Non-NES: 43.0%")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", { className: "flex justify-between" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", null, "Previous Year Reading:"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "font-medium" }, "NES: 33.0% | Non-NES: 47.3%")))), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "flex flex-col justify-center" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "bg-amber-50 border-l-4 border-amber-500 p-4" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "flex" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "flex-shrink-0" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("svg", { className: "h-5 w-5 text-amber-400", viewBox: "0 0 20 20", fill: "currentColor" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("path", { fillRule: "evenodd", d: "M8.257 3.099c.765-1.36 2.722-1.36 3.486 0l5.58 9.92c.75 1.334-.213 2.98-1.742 2.98H4.42c-1.53 0-2.493-1.646-1.743-2.98l5.58-9.92zM11 13a1 1 0 11-2 0 1 1 0 012 0zm-1-8a1 1 0 00-1 1v3a1 1 0 002 0V6a1 1 0 00-1-1z", clipRule: "evenodd" }))), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "ml-3" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "text-sm text-amber-700" }, "NES was systematically implemented in schools serving more disadvantaged populations with lower baseline performance. Valid causal analysis must account for these pre-existing differences."))))))), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "mb-16" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h2", { className: "text-2xl font-bold text-gray-900 mb-4" }, "Uncovering Selection Bias"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "text-gray-700 mb-6" }, "Selection bias is quantified using standardized mean differences (SMDs), which measure how different NES and non-NES schools were before implementation. SMDs above 0.25 indicate substantial bias; values above 0.8 indicate extreme bias requiring careful adjustment."), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "mb-6" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement(HighchartsReact, { highcharts: Highcharts, options: selectionBiasChartOptions }), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "text-sm text-gray-600 mt-2" }, "This chart shows the magnitude and direction of selection bias across key school characteristics. Red bars indicate characteristics where NES schools had much higher values; blue bars show where NES schools had much lower values.")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "bg-slate-50 p-6 rounded-lg" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h3", { className: "text-lg font-semibold mb-3" }, "What This Means:"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "text-gray-700 mb-4" }, "NES was targeted at a specific school profile: schools with concentrated economic disadvantage (SMD=0.920), predominantly minority populations (SMD=-0.793 for White percentage), fewer gifted students (SMD=-0.822), and lower baseline achievement (SMD=-0.801)."), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "text-gray-700" }, "These extreme differences create significant challenges for causal inference. Any valid comparison must account for these pre-existing differences to avoid attributing selection effects to the program itself."))), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "mb-16" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h2", { className: "text-2xl font-bold text-gray-900 mb-4" }, "True Impact: Causal Analysis Results"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "text-gray-700 mb-6" }, "To isolate the causal effect of NES, we combined propensity score weighting with difference-in-differences analysis. This approach accounts for both observed confounders and time-invariant unobserved factors that might bias simple comparisons."), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "mb-8" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement(HighchartsReact, { highcharts: Highcharts, options: causalImpactChartOptions }), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "text-sm text-gray-600 mt-2" }, "This chart shows performance trajectories for both NES and non-NES schools across subjects. Note how NES schools started significantly lower but showed much steeper improvement over time.")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 mb-6" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "bg-slate-50 p-6 rounded-lg" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h3", { className: "text-lg font-semibold mb-3" }, "Mathematics Findings:"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("ul", { className: "space-y-3" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", null, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "font-medium" }, "NES Schools:"), " Improved by 7.6 percentage points"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", null, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "font-medium" }, "Non-NES Schools:"), " Improved by only 1.6 percentage points"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", null, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "font-medium" }, "Causal Effect:"), " 6.0 percentage points [95% CI: 3.4, 8.6]"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", null, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "font-medium" }, "Statistical Significance:"), " Highly significant (p<0.001)"))), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "bg-slate-50 p-6 rounded-lg" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h3", { className: "text-lg font-semibold mb-3" }, "Reading/ELA Findings:"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("ul", { className: "space-y-3" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", null, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "font-medium" }, "NES Schools:"), " Improved by 8.2 percentage points"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", null, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "font-medium" }, "Non-NES Schools:"), " Improved by only 1.4 percentage points"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", null, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "font-medium" }, "Causal Effect:"), " 6.8 percentage points [95% CI: 5.6, 8.1]"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", null, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "font-medium" }, "Statistical Significance:"), " Highly significant (p<0.001)")))), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "bg-blue-50 border-l-4 border-blue-500 p-4" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "flex" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "flex-shrink-0" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("svg", { className: "h-5 w-5 text-blue-400", viewBox: "0 0 20 20", fill: "currentColor" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("path", { fillRule: "evenodd", d: "M18 10a8 8 0 11-16 0 8 8 0 0116 0zm-7-4a1 1 0 11-2 0 1 1 0 012 0zM9 9a1 1 0 000 2h.01a1 1 0 000-2H9z", clipRule: "evenodd" }))), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "ml-3" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "text-sm text-blue-700" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "font-semibold" }, "Cross-Subject Validation:"), " The consistency of effect sizes across both Mathematics (6.0pp) and Reading/ELA (6.8pp) strengthens causal claims by demonstrating that effects aren't limited to a single domain. This pattern suggests systematic program impacts rather than statistical anomalies."))))), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "mb-16" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h2", { className: "text-2xl font-bold text-gray-900 mb-4" }, "District-Wide Projections: What's Possible"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "text-gray-700 mb-6" }, "To estimate what would happen if NES were implemented across all schools, we must account for the limited overlap between NES and non-NES schools. Causal effects can only be reliably extrapolated to schools that resemble the current NES cohort."), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6 mb-8" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", null, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement(HighchartsReact, { highcharts: Highcharts, options: commonSupportChartOptions }), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "text-sm text-gray-600 mt-2" }, "Only 71% of schools (154 of 217) fall within the region of common support where causal comparisons are valid. The remaining 29% represent fundamentally different school contexts.")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "bg-slate-50 p-6 rounded-lg flex flex-col justify-center" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h3", { className: "text-lg font-semibold mb-4" }, "Projected Improvements:"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "space-y-4" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", null, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h4", { className: "font-medium mb-2" }, "Reading/ELA:"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "flex items-center gap-3" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "w-full max-w-xs bg-gray-200 rounded-full h-4" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "bg-blue-400 h-4 rounded-full", style: { width: '37.7%' } })), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "text-sm" }, "37.7%")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "flex items-center gap-3 mt-1" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "w-full max-w-xs bg-gray-200 rounded-full h-4" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "bg-blue-500 h-4 rounded-full", style: { width: '44.5%' } })), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "text-sm" }, "44.5%")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "text-xs text-gray-500 mt-1" }, "Current \u2192 Projected with NES")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", null, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h4", { className: "font-medium mb-2" }, "Mathematics (estimated):"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "flex items-center gap-3" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "w-full max-w-xs bg-gray-200 rounded-full h-4" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "bg-blue-400 h-4 rounded-full", style: { width: '40.9%' } })), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "text-sm" }, "~40.9%")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "flex items-center gap-3 mt-1" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "w-full max-w-xs bg-gray-200 rounded-full h-4" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "bg-blue-500 h-4 rounded-full", style: { width: '46.9%' } })), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "text-sm" }, "~46.9%")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "text-xs text-gray-500 mt-1" }, "Current \u2192 Projected with NES"))))), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "bg-amber-50 border-l-4 border-amber-500 p-4 mb-6" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "flex" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "flex-shrink-0" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("svg", { className: "h-5 w-5 text-amber-400", viewBox: "0 0 20 20", fill: "currentColor" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("path", { fillRule: "evenodd", d: "M8.257 3.099c.765-1.36 2.722-1.36 3.486 0l5.58 9.92c.75 1.334-.213 2.98-1.742 2.98H4.42c-1.53 0-2.493-1.646-1.743-2.98l5.58-9.92zM11 13a1 1 0 11-2 0 1 1 0 012 0zm-1-8a1 1 0 00-1 1v3a1 1 0 002 0V6a1 1 0 00-1-1z", clipRule: "evenodd" }))), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "ml-3" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "text-sm text-amber-700" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "font-semibold" }, "Important Limitation:"), " 39% of non-NES schools had no comparable counterparts among NES schools. These schools (primarily higher-performing, lower-poverty schools) fall outside the region where we can make reliable causal claims. Any projections for these schools would require extrapolation beyond observed data patterns.")))), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "text-gray-700" }, "These projections suggest that implementing NES across eligible schools would yield substantial improvements in student achievement, though still leaving considerable room for further progress toward district goals.")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "mb-16" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h2", { className: "text-2xl font-bold text-gray-900 mb-4" }, "Deep Dive: Technical Details"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "text-gray-700 mb-6" }, "This section provides additional methodological details for those interested in the technical aspects of the causal analysis."), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "border border-gray-200 rounded-md mb-4" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("button", { className: "w-full p-4 text-left font-medium flex justify-between items-center focus:outline-none", onClick: () => toggleSection('methodology') }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", null, "Methodology Overview"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("svg", { className: `w-5 h-5 transition-transform ${openSection === 'methodology' ? 'transform rotate-180' : ''}`, fill: "none", stroke: "currentColor", viewBox: "0 0 24 24" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("path", { strokeLinecap: "round", strokeLinejoin: "round", strokeWidth: "2", d: "M19 9l-7 7-7-7" }))), openSection === 'methodology' && /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "p-4 pt-0 border-t border-gray-200" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h3", { className: "font-medium text-lg mb-3" }, "Propensity Score Weighting"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "mb-4" }, "Propensity scores model the probability of NES participation based on school characteristics. Our model included:"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("ul", { className: "list-disc pl-5 mb-4" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", null, "Economic disadvantage percentage (CPNTECOP)"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", null, "White student percentage (CPNTWHIP)"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", null, "Gifted & talented percentage (CPNTGIFP)"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", null, "Previous year performance"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", null, "School size (CPNTALLC)"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", null, "Limited English proficiency percentage (CPNTLEPP)"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", null, "Special education percentage (CPNTSPEP)"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", null, "Interaction terms between key variables")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h3", { className: "font-medium text-lg mb-3" }, "Difference-in-Differences (DiD) Approach"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "mb-4" }, "The DiD approach compares the change in outcomes between NES and non-NES schools, focusing on within-school improvements rather than absolute performance levels. This controls for time-invariant unobserved confounders."), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h3", { className: "font-medium text-lg mb-3" }, "Common Support Trimming"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", null, "We restricted analysis to schools within the region of common support (where propensity scores overlap between NES and non-NES schools). This ensures causal comparisons are based on comparable schools rather than extrapolation."))), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "border border-gray-200 rounded-md mb-4" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("button", { className: "w-full p-4 text-left font-medium flex justify-between items-center focus:outline-none", onClick: () => toggleSection('assumptions') }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", null, "Statistical Assumptions"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("svg", { className: `w-5 h-5 transition-transform ${openSection === 'assumptions' ? 'transform rotate-180' : ''}`, fill: "none", stroke: "currentColor", viewBox: "0 0 24 24" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("path", { strokeLinecap: "round", strokeLinejoin: "round", strokeWidth: "2", d: "M19 9l-7 7-7-7" }))), openSection === 'assumptions' && /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "p-4 pt-0 border-t border-gray-200" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h3", { className: "font-medium text-lg mb-3" }, "Parallel Trends"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "mb-4" }, "The DiD approach assumes that in the absence of treatment, NES and non-NES schools would have followed parallel trajectories. With only one pre-treatment period, we cannot directly test this assumption but the consistency across subject domains provides some validation."), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h3", { className: "font-medium text-lg mb-3" }, "No Unmeasured Confounding"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "mb-4" }, "While propensity score methods adjust for observed confounders, unobserved factors could still bias estimates. The DiD approach helps mitigate this by controlling for time-invariant unobserved confounders, but time-varying unobserved confounders remain a potential concern."), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h3", { className: "font-medium text-lg mb-3" }, "Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption (SUTVA)"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", null, "We assume no interference between units (one school's treatment doesn't affect another school's outcomes) and treatment consistency (NES implementation was sufficiently uniform across schools). Violations of these assumptions could bias effect estimates."))), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "border border-gray-200 rounded-md" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("button", { className: "w-full p-4 text-left font-medium flex justify-between items-center focus:outline-none", onClick: () => toggleSection('limitations') }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", null, "Limitations and Caveats"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("svg", { className: `w-5 h-5 transition-transform ${openSection === 'limitations' ? 'transform rotate-180' : ''}`, fill: "none", stroke: "currentColor", viewBox: "0 0 24 24" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("path", { strokeLinecap: "round", strokeLinejoin: "round", strokeWidth: "2", d: "M19 9l-7 7-7-7" }))), openSection === 'limitations' && /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "p-4 pt-0 border-t border-gray-200" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h3", { className: "font-medium text-lg mb-3" }, "Limited Common Support"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "mb-4" }, "The extreme selection bias in NES implementation resulted in limited overlap between NES and non-NES schools. Approximately 39% of non-NES schools had no comparable NES counterparts, limiting the generalizability of findings to all district schools."), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h3", { className: "font-medium text-lg mb-3" }, "Residual Imbalance"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "mb-4" }, "Despite propensity score weighting, some imbalance remained in key confounders, particularly economic disadvantage and racial composition. This suggests that even weighted comparisons may retain some bias, though the direction is uncertain."), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h3", { className: "font-medium text-lg mb-3" }, "Potential Effect Heterogeneity"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "mb-4" }, "Our analysis estimates average effects, but NES effectiveness may vary across school contexts. The consistent effects across subject domains suggest systematic impacts, but effect magnitude might differ across school types."), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h3", { className: "font-medium text-lg mb-3" }, "Limited Pre-Treatment Data"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", null, "With only one pre-treatment year available, we cannot fully test the parallel trends assumption or account for pre-existing trajectories that might differ between NES and non-NES schools.")))), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "mb-8" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h2", { className: "text-2xl font-bold text-gray-900 mb-4" }, "Key Takeaways"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("ul", { className: "space-y-4 mb-6" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", { className: "flex gap-3" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "flex-shrink-0 text-blue-500" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("svg", { className: "h-6 w-6", fill: "none", viewBox: "0 0 24 24", stroke: "currentColor" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("path", { strokeLinecap: "round", strokeLinejoin: "round", strokeWidth: "2", d: "M9 12l2 2 4-4m6 2a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z" }))), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", null, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "font-medium" }, "NES caused substantial academic improvements:"), " After accounting for selection bias, NES implementation increased the percentage of students meeting standards by 6.0 percentage points in Mathematics and 6.8 percentage points in Reading/ELA.")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", { className: "flex gap-3" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "flex-shrink-0 text-blue-500" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("svg", { className: "h-6 w-6", fill: "none", viewBox: "0 0 24 24", stroke: "currentColor" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("path", { strokeLinecap: "round", strokeLinejoin: "round", strokeWidth: "2", d: "M9 12l2 2 4-4m6 2a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z" }))), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", null, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "font-medium" }, "Effects are consistent across subject domains:"), " The similar magnitude of effects in both Mathematics and Reading/ELA provides strong validation of program impacts, suggesting systematic rather than chance improvements.")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", { className: "flex gap-3" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "flex-shrink-0 text-blue-500" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("svg", { className: "h-6 w-6", fill: "none", viewBox: "0 0 24 24", stroke: "currentColor" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("path", { strokeLinecap: "round", strokeLinejoin: "round", strokeWidth: "2", d: "M9 12l2 2 4-4m6 2a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z" }))), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", null, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "font-medium" }, "Extreme selection bias was present:"), " NES targeted a specific school profile - high-poverty, predominantly minority schools with lower baseline achievement. This targeting creates challenges for causal inference and limits generalizability.")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", { className: "flex gap-3" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "flex-shrink-0 text-blue-500" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("svg", { className: "h-6 w-6", fill: "none", viewBox: "0 0 24 24", stroke: "currentColor" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("path", { strokeLinecap: "round", strokeLinejoin: "round", strokeWidth: "2", d: "M9 12l2 2 4-4m6 2a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z" }))), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", null, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "font-medium" }, "District-wide projections have important limitations:"), " Approximately 39% of non-NES schools have no comparable NES counterparts, making causal projections for these schools unreliable. Estimates apply most confidently to the 71% of schools within the region of common support.")), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("li", { className: "flex gap-3" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "flex-shrink-0 text-blue-500" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("svg", { className: "h-6 w-6", fill: "none", viewBox: "0 0 24 24", stroke: "currentColor" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("path", { strokeLinecap: "round", strokeLinejoin: "round", strokeWidth: "2", d: "M9 12l2 2 4-4m6 2a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z" }))), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", null, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("span", { className: "font-medium" }, "Significant progress but room for improvement remains:"), " Even with the substantial gains from NES, projected proficiency rates remain below 50%. This suggests NES is effective but insufficient alone to achieve district performance goals."))), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "bg-slate-50 p-6 rounded-lg" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("h3", { className: "text-lg font-semibold mb-3" }, "Conclusion"), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", { className: "text-gray-700" }, "The data provides strong evidence that NES implementation caused meaningful improvements in student achievement within its targeted context. These effects are statistically significant, consistent across subject domains, robust to adjustment for selection bias, and educationally meaningful in magnitude. However, the systematic targeting of NES to specific school profiles limits our ability to generalize these effects to all district schools. The causal claims are strongest for schools resembling the current NES cohort: high-poverty, predominantly minority schools with lower baseline achievement."))), /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("div", { className: "text-sm text-gray-500 border-t pt-4" }, /*#__PURE__*/React.createElement("p", null, "Analysis based on 2023-2024 HISD performance data for grades 3-8."))); } NESCausalAnalysisReport; module.exports.default = NESCausalAnalysisReport;